Smile, and move up the happiness curve

Soccer stars & space cadets When our teachers at school asked what we wanted to be as adults, there was always an interesting range of responses, ranging from dream careers (professional sports stars, robot engineers) to those guided by parental preference (usually actuaries or barristers). Looking back, I don't think… full article

FIGJAM and other biases

Luck versus skill (FIGJAM) Too many of us have a natural tendency to believe that we've achieved everything through our own hard graft. It's all too easy to downplay the fortunate aspects of our circumstances (in my case, for example, being born in a developed country, to well-educated parents, who… full article

Predictions for 2020, and how to survive them

Monte Carlo Grand Prix It's nearly that festive time of year again when the economic soothsayers will be out in force to make their 2020 predictions! A genuine model of outcomes for next year might run through a Monte Carlo simulation, using a range of different variables and probabilities to… full article

Long-term investing with the Lindy effect

The black drop I'm not a boozer these days, but in my early twenties there was never any need to ask me what drink I wanted for the next round...it was always a pint of Guinness, no questions asked! Lots of trendy new ales came and went, as did various… full article

What doesn’t kill you…

Toughen up! When I was a teenager I worked for some years in a timber factory, and the older fellas had hands like you wouldn't believe. While new hires would invariably see their hands shredded with cuts and splinters, over time and as their hands repaired the body would overcompensate… full article